Monday, June 30, 2014

Internal Poll shows Dave Trott up 14 Points in 11th Congressional District

National Research Inc. recently conducted a survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters in Michigan’s 11th Congressional District from June 23 to June 24, 2014.  All responses were conducted through live interviews.   The margin of error for this survey +/- 4.9%   The following is a summary of the important information from the survey:

1.    Dave Trott leads Kerry Bentivolio, 33%-19%
Dave Trott leads the ballot test with Bentivolio by 14 points.  Voters are responding  favorably to Trott, as witnessed by the fact that Dave has steadily improved in the ballot test in the 4 internal polls the campaign has taken.

Bentivolio’s 19% ballot score is a devastating place for an incumbent to be testing. While 47% of those tested were undecided, Bentivolio will have a very difficult time trying to persuade them to support him as the incumbent. 

2.    When including those voters who lean toward one candidate or the other, Trott leads 39% to 21% for Bentivolio.

When including voters who lean toward either candidate, Trott’s lead widens to hold a commanding 18 point lead.   An additional 8% of voters make a decision with Trott’s ballot improving to 39% and Bentivolio’s ballot improving to 21%.

3.    Dave Trott’s favorable/unfavorable is nearly 2:1 (30% fav-16% unfav), while Bentivolio’s favorable/unfavorable is nearly 1:1 (28% fav-25% unfav).   

Trott’s favorable/unfavorable rating is nearly 2 to 1 at 30% favorable to 16% unfavorable.   Bentivolio’s favorable/unfavorable rating is 28% favorable/25% unfavorable. 

4.    Dave Trott’s ballot position has improved steadily over time.

As the campaign has progressed, Dave Trott’s ballot position has significantly improved.  Bentivolio has always had incredibly low numbers for an incumbent member of Congress.   But the more voters learn about Bentivolio and Trott, the more they support Trott and the less they support Bentivolio.  Four polls conducted over the last year show considerable improvement by Trott and declining support for Bentivolio.


Dave Trott has built a strong lead with voters and is in a strong position with less than 40 days before the primary.   

Adam Geller is the pollster for the Dave Trott for Congress campaign and CEO of National Research Inc.  Adam Geller is tremendously respected as a pollster with past and current clients including Rep. Tim Walberg, US Senator Pat Toomey, Club for Growth, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.  In his 538 blog, Nate Silver cited Adam Geller’s survey research in North Carolina as among the most accurate of Republican polls in the 2012 cycle.